According to Allied Market Research, the global autonomous logistics market is projected to reach $13.1 billion by 2025 and surge to $41.2 billion by 2035. What was once a technological trend is now rapidly becoming a strategic necessity for businesses.
With the combination of rising labor shortages, increasing fuel costs, and tightening environmental regulations, the adoption of self-driving trucks could be a game-changer for the logistics industry.
While these vehicles are already widely used in controlled environments – such as warehouses, ports, and manufacturing sites – autonomous technology is poised to fundamentally reshape the market over the next decade.
How Rising Transport Costs and Driver Shortages Are Slowing Business Growth
The need for self-driving trucks in logistics has never been more pressing. One of the biggest challenges facing the transportation industry today is the severe shortage of qualified and experienced drivers.
A 2024 McKinsey report estimates that the U.S. is already short more than 80,000 truck drivers, and this number could double by 2030. The average age of a truck driver in the U.S. is 46, higher than the average for blue-collar workers (42).
The situation in Europe is even more critical, with around 7% of truck driver positions – more than 200,000 jobs – currently unfilled. By 2028, this number could rise to 745,000. The workforce is also aging rapidly: only 5% of European truck drivers are under 25, while 33% are over 55.
Since 2017, spot freight rates in Europe have surged by 28%. In the U.S., logistics costs as a share of GDP climbed from 7.5% in 2020 to 8.7% in 2023.
The primary drivers behind these increases are rising driver wages, higher fuel prices, and increasing toll road fees. Additionally, costs are expected to continue rising due to stricter carbon footprint regulations and the transition to zero-emission vehicles.
One potential solution to these challenges is the adoption of autonomous technologies, which have the potential to significantly reduce operational costs in freight transportation – ultimately driving business growth.
Growth Drivers and Advantages of Autonomous Logistics
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in traditional supply chains, accelerating the demand for transformation. Businesses are now prioritizing efficiency, transparency, and sustainability. In response, autonomous logistics has gained a significant amount of momentum.
One of the key growth drivers in this field is technological advancement. Innovations in cloud computing, 5G, artificial intelligence, and blockchain are making autonomous systems more accessible and capable.
Additionally, the expansion of e-commerce and omnichannel retailing has increased operational complexity, requiring greater flexibility and adaptability. Autonomous logistics networks enable optimized transportation management and faster responses to shifting market conditions.
We are already seeing automation drive down operating expenses. Managing 10 traditional trucks requires 10 drivers, a dispatcher, a medical professional for clearance procedures, and additional support staff.
If a company operates 24/7, the workforce must be tripled to cover all shifts, which creates a significant financial burden for staffing and back-office operations. With the introduction of autonomous vehicles, a single operator can oversee multiple trucks simultaneously. This shift can reduce operating costs by 50% or more.
Another major benefit is sustainability. Logistics hubs are often located near urban areas, making it crucial to minimize CO2 emissions. Electric-powered autonomous vehicles produce no direct pollution, aligning with modern environmental standards and goals.
According to an Accenture report, 83% of consumers prefer companies that are transparent about their supply chains, and 72% are willing to pay more for products that meet ethical and environmental standards.
Scenarios for Autonomous Truck Deployment
The development of autonomous trucking between 2027 and 2040 is likely to follow three key scenarios: full autonomy, limited autonomy, and partial autonomy.
- Full Autonomy (SAE Level 5): In this model, trucks would operate entirely without human intervention, transporting goods between distribution centers. Logistics hubs would be used solely for refueling and recharging.
- Limited Autonomy (SAE Level 4): This scenario envisions self-driving trucks operating between logistics hubs, with human drivers taking control only at the beginning and end of each route.
- Partial Autonomy (SAE Level 2+ or 3): Here, autonomous systems handle most driving tasks, but a human driver remains available to intervene when needed. This approach enhances safety and reduces costs, making it particularly relevant for heavily regulated markets.
Enclosed Logistics Hubs as a Priority Segment
Using autonomous vehicles in enclosed logistics areas can accelerate freight movement by up to 20%. Self-driving technology is already being deployed in controlled environments where integration with public roads is not required, making enclosed logistics hubs currently the most promising sector for autonomous solutions.
Operating autonomous trucks on public roads requires regulatory changes, but they are already successfully in use at many commercial facilities. At Megawatt, we focus on segments where automation is already feasible – enclosed logistics hubs such as ports and warehouse complexes.
In addition to developing autonomous platforms, we retrofit diesel trucks into electric vehicles. For clients not ready to replace their fleet, we offer modernization solutions, including driver monitoring sensors. These systems help optimize routes and identify areas for automation, ultimately reducing costs.
Global Leaders and Laggards in Autonomous Trucking
According to McKinsey projections, the autonomous trucking market could reach $616 billion by 2035, with $327 billion in China, $178 billion in the U.S., and $112 billion in Europe.
The U.S. is expected to lead in adoption, with 13% of trucks on the road being autonomous by 2035. This rapid growth is driven by high driver wages, ongoing labor shortages, the vast distances between cities, and a weak rail network – making automation particularly cost-effective in this context.
Europe, despite having the highest potential for reducing total cost of ownership (TCO), will likely see slower adoption, with only 4% of trucks being autonomous by 2035.
Factors slowing progress include complex landscapes (winding roads, snow, tunnels) and shorter average routes, where the financial benefits of automation will only become significant after 2040.
China is set to surpass Europe, reaching 11% autonomous truck penetration by 2035. While lower driver wages reduce the urgency for automation, the country’s strong long-haul trucking sector and robust domestic manufacturing capabilities will accelerate adoption.
Key Challenges of Autonomous Logistics
Like any automation, the adoption of self-driving technology comes with the risk of eliminating hundreds of thousands of jobs. While the transportation industry is already facing labor shortages, 3.54 million drivers are currently employed in the U.S. alone.
Autonomous trucks could threaten these jobs, along with industries that rely on truckers, such as roadside motels, rest stops, and diners.
There is hope that companies will use self-driving trucks to fill existing labor gaps rather than fully replace human drivers. However, the push to cut labor costs is likely to drive large-scale automation in freight transport.
Retraining drivers as remote operators could be a partial solution, but the number of such positions will be significantly lower than the jobs lost.
History shows that technology creates more jobs than it eliminates in the long run. However, these new roles require different skills, and workforce adaptation takes time. As a result, the introduction of autonomous trucks could cause short-term disruptions in the labor market.
Beyond employment concerns, regulatory and legal challenges remain major roadblocks to large-scale deployment. Key questions – such as liability in accidents and damage compensation – still lack clear answers.
Without well-defined regulations, the growth of autonomous logistics will be slow. At present, a self-driving truck cannot even move from one factory building to another if the route briefly crosses a public road.
Trends for the Next Decade
Over the next 5–10 years, autonomous vehicles will be primarily deployed in enclosed environments, such as warehouses, ports, and industrial sites. The next phase will see self-driving trucks operating between logistics hubs via public highways. In the longer term, autonomous vehicles will begin integrating into urban traffic.
The biggest barrier to widespread adoption won’t be technological development but regulatory frameworks. It will take at least 5-10 years to establish clear operational guidelines for autonomous trucks and define liability protocols for potential incidents.
Another promising area for automation is in agriculture, with the development of autonomous combines and tractors. Even current technologies are flexible enough to be adapted for use with different types of farming equipment, making this a high-potential sector for self-driving solutions.
By Andrey Bolshakov, Co-founder of Megawatt, a Manufacturer of Autonomous Freight Platforms
