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GDP gave us a rocket ship. But we’re flying blind.
We’ve been sold a story: progress is always up and to the right. GDP is the proof. Growth means success. If the number goes up, everyone wins. But what if that story’s broken?
This week, a new report from Verisk Maplecroft put a $1.14 trillion price tag on climate risk to corporate assets — over just five years. India, Nigeria, Kenya, Bangladesh, Pakistan: all in the bullseye. India alone holds $818 billion in S&P 500 exposure. That’s not a future problem. That’s it for now. Growth is roaring. But the ground beneath it is cracking. Here’s the thing about GDP: it was built in the 1930s, in a world short on labour and machines, not nature. The goal back then? Reboot the economy. GDP did its job. But it doesn’t see the world we live in now. Burn a forest? GDP goes up. Bleach a coral reef? GDP goes up. Overfish the ocean? Still up. Ecosystems don’t count. Biodiversity doesn’t count. Carbon sinks, flood buffers, disease regulators — none of it shows up. If it’s alive and unbought, GDP ignores it.
We’re measuring progress by what we produce — and ignoring what we destroy. And we wonder why it feels like we’re moving forward and falling apart at the same time. Progress isn’t linear. It’s messy. We gain tech and lose stability. We live longer and feel worse. The numbers tell one story; the planet tells another. So why do we cling to GDP? Because it rewards extraction. Because it’s convenient. Because it works — for the people already winning.
As Yuval Harari says, humans are great at solving short-term problems. Not slow-motion collapses. GDP keeps the short-term machine humming while the long-term system buckles.
And yeah, people will roll their eyes.
“Oh, Green GDP? Happiness Index? Tried that. Didn’t stick.”
True. It is work in progress. This doesn’t mean we stop. It means we try harder. With more imagination.
Because first principles are simple: the purpose of an economy is to help people survive and thrive. If it doesn’t account for the ecosystems we depend on, it’s not helping us thrive. It’s helping us crash. If nature stays invisible to money, it stays invisible to decisions. But here’s the shift: people are starting to rewrite the story.
New Zealand’s Wellbeing Budget tracks ecological and social health, not just growth. The UN’s SEEA framework helps countries account for nature like they do capital. Over 70 countries now price carbon. The EU is testing biodiversity credits. The UK’s Dasgupta Review said what should’ve been obvious: nature is an asset — and we’re mismanaging it. These aren’t hypotheticals. They’re data points in a new story — one where survival matters more than output. India can’t afford to miss this turn. Its growth is real. So is its risk. We don’t need to scrap GDP. Just stop treating it like gospel. Build parallel metrics. Track biodiversity. Tax destruction. Reward restoration. If we don’t measure what matters, we will lose what matters. And when we notice, it’ll be too late. The old story got us here. It won’t get us out. Time to write a better one.
The writer is co-founder of Soul Forest and Kheyti (Earthshot Prize winner)
Published on May 11, 2025
