New Delhi: The adage that one man’s misfortune is another man’s opportunity holds true for Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan, more so in the revolving door of Bihar politics. Chirag’s recent statement in which he has indicated his willingness to return to state politics has caused a flutter in Nitish’s Janata Dal (United), or the JD(U).
For Nitish, it would be foolhardy to not read into Chirag’s larger scheme of things. After all, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), or the LJP (RV), had pushed the JD(U) to number three in Bihar as its tally came down from 71 in 2015 to 43 in 2020.
Another reason for the JD(U) chief to be alarmed is the possibility of another such “misadventure” in an election year. Moreover, Chirag had identified Nitish as the brain behind the split in his party in June 2021. What adds to the discomfiture is the Maharashtra episode wherein Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde had to give away the chair of chief minister to Devendra Fadnavis.
Given that the elections are due this year, Chirag’s statement is also being seen in the larger context of who gets to lead the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar. On Sunday, the LJP (RV)’s youth wing held an executive meeting in which a resolution was passed demanding that Chirag contest the polls in his home state.
Some of the leaders, who attended the meeting, demanded that Chirag should be made the face of not just the alliance but also to lead it.
“Chirag Paswan is ready to play an active role in state politics and he is ready to take new responsibilities,” Jamui MP and Chirag’s brother-in-law Arun Bharti had told the media.
LJP (RV) spokesperson R. Vineet told ThePrint that the party workers urged that Chirag should be prepared for a bigger role. “The NDA has to take a call on this.”
As of now, the JD(U) is trying to play down Chirag’s statement and is suggesting the LJP (RV) leader to work unitedly to make Nitish the chief minister yet again.
“The party has already given the slogan: ‘25 se 30, Phir se Nitish.’ JD(U) and LJP leaders are taking part in NDA state-level and district-level meetings to make Nitish Kumar the chief minister again… As president of one of the important alliance partners in Bihar, Chirag Pawan should give more time to make Nitish Kumar the chief minister again. There is no ambiguity in this,” JD(U) spokesperson Neeraj Kumar told ThePrint.
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Seat-sharing pangs
The JD(U) leaders ThePrint spoke to highlighted the timing of Chirag’s statement: Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), or HAM (S), has already complained that it was not given a fair deal in seat sharing in the 2024 general elections.
HAM(S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi has put up a demand for at least 35-40 seats in the Bihar polls even as he is the only Lok Sabha MP of his party, they said.
“The posturing of LJP (RV) is for more seats as this time every party will have to adjust other three partners from their share of seats and the LJP (RV) wants to build pressure on us for more seats,” one of the JD(U) leaders told ThePrint.
Another JD(U) leader gave the example of late LJP president and Chirag’s father Ram Vilas Paswan to suggest that Chirag would not give away the Cabinet berth for the dust bowls of Bihar.
“Ram Vilas ji never sacrificed his cabinet berth for state politics. The LJP politics has been about being a part of Centre to get resources while others back up for state politics. Without more than double digit vote share, the LJP will not risk its cabinet birth,” the JD(U) leader contended.
During his lifetime, Ram Vilas Paswan was famed for his uncanny ability to switch sides with those alliances that eventually won the general elections. He had gone to be a central minister under as many as six prime ministers.
In 2020, Chirag Paswan fielded candidates in 137 seats and won only from Matihani in Bihar. Though his party’s vote share was 5.7 percent, it cut the votes of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) in at least 28 seats. In fact, the tally of 2020 was less than the two seats it had won in 2015.
The Bihar centric remark, according to a leader from Nitish’s party, was more about getting a respectable seat share.
“In 2020, both the partners accommodated allies by giving away seats from their share. The JD(U) accommodated Manjhi by giving seven seats of its 122 seats while the BJP parted away 11 seats to Mukesh Sahani (of Vikassheel Insaan Party) from its 121 seats. Chirag Paswan was not part of the alliance in 2020,” the JD(U) leader told ThePrint.
“If we replicate the formula of Lok Sabha to divide the 243 seats in Bihar, it comes to eight assembly seats for each parliamentary seat. We should be allotted 40 seats even though Manji is also claiming an equal number. Since Manjhi is the lone MP for his party, he should not be given more than 8 seats. Upendra Kushwaha (of Rashtriya Lok Samta Party), too, needs seats.”
The JD(U), he added, needs seats to not only accommodate smaller allies but to also get the attention of young voters who are ready to shift their allegiance from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
Another JD(U) functionary suggested that one way out was to split 243 assembly seats among three allies with Nitish and the BJP getting about each. The other plan could be the BJP allocating seats to Chirag from its share, while the JD(U) adjusting Manjhi and Kushwah. “It’s early to comment on seat-sharing talks but pressure is building up for more seats from every ally,” the functionary added.
In the BJP camp, the overall feeling is that Chirag’s statement is not just about seat-sharing tactics but also about managing the narrative of leadership.
“Bihar politics is veering towards young leadership in contrast to Nitish Kumar’s political flip-flops. In the recent C-Voter survey, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav is atop the list while Prashant Kishor is second. Nitish is at the third position,” a BJP functionary said, adding that Nitish faces an anti-incumbency wave.
The BJP cannot leave Nitish for his wide social base but doesn’t want to lose aspirational young voters, he explained. “So, pitching Chirag and (Bihar Deputy Chief Minister and BJP leader) Samrat Chaudhary can help in stemming the shifting of young voters to Tejashwi.”
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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