The announcement took the opposition by surprise too, as the BJP-led NDA government has previously opposed the demand to count caste and in 2021 had completely ruled it out. Not just the government’s intent but the decision’s timing—following the Pahalgam attack and ahead of crucial assembly polls in Bihar—raised eyebrows.
The decision comes as the Modi-led NDA finishes one year of its third term in power at the Centre, and is likely aimed at confusing the opposition and its adversaries.
At a press conference, Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi took a dig at this “change of heart”. “Modiji used to say there are only four castes (women, youth, farmers and the poor) in the country. Don’t know what happened, but anyway, the Congress supports the government’s decision. We have been running a grassroots-campaign for many months, which pushed them to conduct the caste census,” he said, calling for removal of 50 percent cap on reservations for Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and a timeline for conduct of the caste count.
The BJP leader dwelt on the significance of the Centre’s move and its attack on the opposition’s main electoral plank.
“The opposition was expecting a surgical strike against Pakistan, as the PM said the armed forces have been given full freedom to decide the action and timing. But this (caste census announcement) is like a surgical strike on the opposition, whose main electoral plank was caste census,” he said.
“The Congress, RJD (Bihar’s Rashtriya Janata Dal), and Samajwadi Party (SP) were all riding on the social justice agenda. They had some success in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and were under the illusion that the Modi government would not conduct a caste census. The Congress hoped to gain ground among the OBCs, but the Modi government, in one stroke, took away Rahul Gandhi’s electoral plank,” he asserted.
“Like other OBC empowerment initiatives, it is the Modi government that has shown the courage to conduct a caste census, which will change the course of social justice politics.”
Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, announcing the decision Wednesday, took a dig at previous governments led by the Congress as caste was never counted in any census since independence.
He accused the Congress of using caste count as a “political tool” but failing to actually conduct a caste census. He pointed out that a group of ministers had been formed to consider the idea and most political parties had also recommended it over the years.
Speaking to ThePrint, other BJP leaders and functionaries termed the government’s caste census decision as a deliberate and well-thought strategy in the wake of last week’s terror attack which is believed to have been undertaken with help from across the border.
“The decision was well thought out. The government had long considered snatching the Congress’s caste plank after the Lok Sabha setback. Only the timing was an issue. The government and party calculated this to be the best timing. At this moment, Hindu unity is most important for the government to manage the fallout from the attack. The government cannot risk communal riots, which is what the Pakistan Army wants,” said a BJP functionary.
In a similar vein, a central BJP leader said the opposition parties were surprised as they had still not understood the Modi government’s working style.
“The message should not go out that the government is handicapped by the Pahalgam attack and that the entire machinery is only focused on responding to it. The response will be handled by the armed forces, which have been tasked to do so,” the leader said.
“Despite the attack, the PM went to address a rally in Bihar to send a message and continued with his duties. He will inaugurate the WAVES Summit Thursday in Mumbai and other development projects in various states. The government cannot stop working, and decisions will be taken simultaneously.”
According to Badri Narayan, professor at GB Pant Social Science Institute, the government’s decision to go ahead with a caste census would definitely impact the polls in Bihar, where the NDA is in power with the government led by ally Janata Dal (United).
“Bihar is the laboratory of caste-based politics in India. The government was well aware of the growing opposition challenge of social justice politics, which can impact caste mobilisation like it did in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress has launched a ‘Save the Constitution’ rally in several states, and Bihar was going to be majorly impacted,” he told ThePrint.
“Since the election campaign has started in Bihar and seat-sharing talks have begun, the government may have found it suitable to announce the caste census now.”
Also Read: Chirag Paswan backs caste census, but not in favour of making data public. ‘Creates further division’
Govt’s shift of stand
The Modi government has previously either opposed holding of a caste census or maintained an ambiguous stand on the subject.
In 2021, in a reply to the Lok Sabha, the Centre had said that it had decided, as a matter of policy, not to enumerate caste-wise data beyond SCs and STs. In its affidavit submitted in the Supreme Court, the Centre said that “population census is not the ideal instrument for collection of details on caste”.
After the BJP’s victory in the 2023 state elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, taking a dig at the opposition’s caste census campaign, Modi said at the party headquarters: “People tried to divide the country on caste lines during elections. For me, there are only four castes: women, youth, farmers, and the poor.”
“The country will be strengthened by empowering them. A significant part of our OBC and tribal population comes from these segments. Today, every poor, deprived person, farmer, tribal, and youth is saying he has won.”
Since then, the PM has consistently used the “four castes” formula in public meetings and interviews to counter the Congress and the opposition’s caste census demand.
The first indication of a strategic shift, however, came last year, when Union Home Minister Amit Shah said in an interview that “the government has not yet decided whether to include caste in the population census, and it will be decided at the right time”.
Even the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), BJP’s ideological parent, signalled a change in position last September after its ‘Samanvay Baithak’ in Kerala. RSS spokesperson Sunil Ambekar said: “It (caste census) should not be used for electoral politics but for welfare politics.”
“The RSS believes that for all welfare activities, particularly when addressing a specific community or caste, the government needs numbers.”
‘Timed to manage Hindu unity after Pahalgam’
Leaders from Rahul Gandhi to SP’s Akhilesh Yadav and RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav have long built their electoral plank around a nation-wide caste count, with Gandhi putting forth the demand during his visit to Bihar in January.
Among the states, Bihar was the first to conduct a caste survey of its residents and published its findings in 2023. In 2015, the Congress government in Karnataka also conducted a caste survey. The report is yet to be made public. Telangana also conducted a caste survey last year.
Speaking to ThePrint, BJP sources said the announcement of the caste census and its timing was calculated to impact the upcoming Bihar elections, where caste is the biggest poll plank.
“The BJP is firefighting against the aggressive Tejashwi Yadav and an ageing (JD(U) leader and chief minister) Nitish Kumar, who is sliding in popularity despite his strong social coalition of Kurmi-Kushwaha (dominant OBC castes) and Mahadalit groups, which forms 16 percent of the JD(U) vote-bank. But there is also a long-term consideration, and the timing is well-suited to manage Hindu unity in the wake of the Pahalgam attack,” a source said.
A Bihar BJP leader outlined the peculiar challenge faced by the party in the state.
“The BJP is well aware of the growing challenge in Bihar. Our ground survey shows several challenges. We are in a peculiar situation—we can’t leave Nitish because he has the votes of Mahadalits and Kurmi-Kushwaha communities. But his age can be counterproductive, as most parties are appealing to younger voters who may shift towards Tejashwi or Prashant Kishor (of Jan Suraaj party). So, it was necessary to boost the NDA’s prospects.”
“The caste census was a well-thought decision. Yesterday (Tuesday), when the RSS chief met the PM, he was briefed on the government’s decision to hold a caste count across the nation. It’s a masterstroke and the beginning of Mandal 3.0 politics.”
The JD(U) as well as other political parties in Bihar have lauded the Centre’s caste census move ahead of the assembly polls.
Spokesperson Rajeev Ranjan Prasad told ThePrint: “The idea of a caste survey was first conceived during Nitish Kumar’s tenure under the NDA, although it was finally conducted under the JD(U)-RJD alliance. Nitish Kumar remained consistent in his commitment, fulfilling a promise that had been politically fraught and socially complex. Bihar is the pioneer state in this matter. Even the BJP never opposed the caste survey in Bihar and supported it. This will lead to the empowerment of disadvantaged classes.”
CM Nitish too welcomed the decision. “Our demand for conducting such a census is old and it will reveal the number of people of different classes, which will help in making plans for their uplift. Congratulations and thanks to Modiji,” he said.
The BJP functionary mentioned earlier summed up the move thus: “Due to the opposition’s campaign, there was a threat that Hindu unity could be undermined through social justice politics. At any cost, the government cannot allow that. Now, the caste census will help consolidate the OBCs among Hindus. The RSS can take forward the rest of the unity work.”
“In the long term, this will strengthen the BJP’s grip on OBC politics.”
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
Also Read: BJP rethinks its OBC strategy for Maharashtra, UP & Bihar as caste politics threatens key vote bank
