App Store payments will still be preferred by most users – Image Credit: Apple
Big developers are hoping that US users will be tempted to buy subscriptions outside of the App Store, but a survey suggests that the few that shift will need to be tempted by giant discounts.
The continuing Epic vs Apple fight over the App Store resulted in Apple being forced to allow developers to link to external stores, after failing to abide by the 2021 injunction on the matter. It now seems that, while to a complete exodus from the App Store, Apple may see a considerable reduction in revenue in the future over the change.
According to a May AlphaWise survey outlined in a Morgan Stanley analyst note seen by AppleInsider, many consumers still want to make purchases without going through Apple’s payment systems.
The survey asked U.S. iPhone owners how willing they were to purchase an app directly from a developer’s website, assuming it’s the same price as the version in the App Store. The results were scored on a five-point scale, from Extremely Likely and Somewhat Likely to Neutral, to Somewhat Unlikely and Extremely Unlikely.
Approximately 28% of respondents voted for the Extremely Likely answer, which is up from 27% in 2022 and 18% in 2021. A further 20% voted Somewhat Likely, down from 23% in 2022 and 2021.
A survey into linked-out purchase intentions – Image Credit: AlphaWise/Morgan Stanley
On the other end of the scale, 7% said Somewhat Unlikely and 19% said Extremely Unlikely to the question in 2025. The Extremely Unlikely result is much higher than the 2022 and 2021 surveys, which rated it at 10% and 11% respectively.
The note adds that younger age people, men, and users who pay for several apps in the App Store are more willing to pay outside of the App Store itself. However given that 75% of iPhone users don’t pay for more than five apps, this pool of more willing people is very small.
Incentivized desertion
To put a positive spin on the numbers, this survey indicates that the vast majority of users will stick to their usual In App Payments usage rather than going outside of the App Store. However, developers can potentially skew the numbers in their direction.
The survey asked the users how much of a discount they would need for non-App Store purchases to be down by in order to be incentivized to use them. The 2025 results indicate that they would need a discount of around 29% for it to be justifiable.
This is a slightly lower discount than the 2022 survey, which reported a 35% discount would be needed. That means it would require developers to offer less of a discount now than they would’ve needed if it were possible a few years ago.
That said, the needed discount percentage isn’t great news for developers, since it’s so close to the existing 30% fee for App Store transactions that Apple already charges.
In effect, a developer would theoretically earn the same amount from selling the app purchases themselves as they would from the App Store after Apple’s cut. That is, excluding any processing fees or other potential charges associated with the transaction.
Still battling
While to developers there may not necessarily be as much of a benefit as one thought for having an external storefront for in-app purchases, if the survey is to be believed, there’s still a lot for Apple to care about.
To Morgan Stanley, the results indicate a revenue risk caused by the injunction of about $3.7 billion to Apple. In a worst-case scenario, this would equate to an earnings per share hit of 16 cents.
That $3.7 billion hit is a lot of money per quarter, and something that Apple is keen to protect. Following the original ruling that ordered Apple to amend its anti-steering rules to allow developers to link out from apps, Apple introduced a complicated solution and a hefty 27% commission.
That resulted in sanctions in April 2025, with the court ordering Apple to try again.
Naturally, Apple has appealed the injunction and requested for its enforcement to be paused. The pause was denied in June.
