(Bloomberg Opinion) — Even in a country as accustomed to violence as Mexico, some vicious acts can still shake up society. The assassination of two of Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada’s close aides last week was one of them.
The shocking murders during the morning commute on one of the city’s busiest avenues were designed for maximum political impact. The authorities have been careful not to air any conjectures about who was responsible. But the attack makes very clear that Claudia Sheinbaum doesn’t have much room to continue soft-pedalling Mexico’s security challenge.
Mexico’s first female president has made inroads in the fight against narco violence since her October inauguration. Her decision to empower her Secretary of Security Omar García Harfuch — the city’s former police chief who was himself the target of an unsuccessful assassination attempt in 2020 — to take on organized crime has had some good results: The average of daily intentional homicides declined about 25% according to official figures; several high-profile operatives have been arrested or killed; some big-ticket fentanyl seizures have occurred. In February, the government transferred 29 drug capos to the US for prosecution. Polls show growing public approval of Sheinbaum’s security policies.
Yet that’s not enough. The government has focused on trying to administer the problem and reverse the negative trend of recent years — instead of tackling the insecurity threat head-on with a comprehensive plan to truly change Mexico’s state of lawlessness.
It’s understandable: Sheinbaum’s predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s labelled his containment strategy “hugs, not bullets” in an explicit call to avoid repression, an ethos of his administration. You could say it was naïve or even cynical, but by disregarding a problem he didn’t think he could solve, López Obrador navigated his six years in power relatively unscathed. The memories of President Felipe Calderon’s disastrous war on drugs, when the Mexican state deployed the army to wage a full-on fight against narcos, were still fresh.
Unfortunately for Sheinbaum, the extent of criminal penetration in the country is such that she doesn’t have the luxury of pursuing an incremental approach. Forced by continuous political violence, US government pressure and growing popular demand, Sheinbaum must own the insecurity problem that López Obrador left unresolved. In fact, the cowardly assassinations of Ximena Guzmán and José Muñoz, even if the result of just local underworld disputes, show that you can’t take on organized crime without paying some political costs for the unavoidable backlash.
“These killings are symbolic and show the big problem that Mexico faces. It’s likely that we are seeing the start of more violence,” Daniel Linsker, head of security consultancy firm Control Risks in Mexico, told me. “The government’s strategy is changing and that will always generate push back, both from criminal groups but also from insiders that benefited under the previous rules.”
Since his return to power, the US president has adopted a more aggressive stance toward Mexican cartels, flirting with the idea of military operations or drone strikes inside the Latin American country. The White House has designated six Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, increased surveillance efforts and lifted the US visas of some Mexican politicians, including the governor of the Baja California state neighboring California. Prosecutors are also negotiating deals with some of the fiercest drug lords now in US custody.
The Mexican government’s reaction has been measured. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that a telephone call between the leaders ended amid tensions when the US president insisted on a leading role for the US military in battling the drug gangs. But despite their strikingly opposed political styles and ideologies, there is a window of opportunity for Sheinbaum and Trump to cooperate on the narcotrafficking problem. Mexico needs the US to solve its internal violence and, likewise, the US crucially requires Mexico to reduce the flow of illegal drugs and the underground economy that it fuels.
For that to happen, both countries must set and respect their own red lines: The Mexican government needs to be honest about the indispensable logistical, intelligence and military support that the US provides to take on groups that that control significant parts of the country and have sophisticated weapons and defense systems. Sheinbaum should let Washington play bad cop against some of the undesirable political and business figures that populate Mexico including within her own political movement.
In the meantime, the US needs to understand that it’s part of the problem: Americans’ insatiable demand for narcotics and the supply of advanced weapons by US manufacturers are key drivers of this tragedy. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged last week that the cartels are armed by US gunmakers, a point Mexico has been making for years. “We want to help stop that flow,” Rubio said. “We have a mutual interest in Mexico.” That’s encouraging.
And then there is the thorny issue of territorial sovereignty: As integrated as both countries are in economic terms, the full authority over its territory is paramount for Mexico. Given the history of bilateral relations, no Mexican president would accept US army troops on the ground unilaterally. The US may think it’s only trying to help by sending a former Green Beret as ambassador — but in the leftist circles close to the nationalist ruling party that’s seen as “imperial arrogance.” Mexican nationalism is alive and well: A recent poll showed that over 53% of Mexicans have a negative image of the US and that number reaches 84% when asked specifically about Trump.
All this leaves Sheinbaum with a narrow course of action. The US-Mexico relationship is already one of the most complex and multilayered diplomatic bonds in the world. That’s even more so now with Trump’s pledge to eliminate the cartels. While the White House would ideally recognize Sheinbaum’s domestic political constraints, the Mexican government needs to take Trump’s threats seriously because it’s only a question of time before he embarks on more forceful measures.
Monumental decisions loom for Mexico’s unflinching president, squeezed between an aggressive White House and a nationalistic party that resents any whiff of imperialism. But she can play a tough hand well by relentlessly focusing on improving Mexico’s security conditions.
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This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
JP Spinetto is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Latin American business, economic affairs and politics. He was previously Bloomberg News’ managing editor for economics and government in the region.
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