In a significant reciprocatory gesture, Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on a two-day visit to Jeddah at the invitation of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This visit comes nearly 19 months after the Crown Prince’s visit to New Delhi during India’s G20 presidency in September 2023. This is Prime Minister Modi’s third visit to the Kingdom after 2016 and 2019, sixth international visit this year, and fifth visit to the Middle East since the Israel-Hamas war broke out in October 2023. Against the backdrop of heightened regional instability in the Middle East—from the protracted conflict in Syria and a dramatic change of power in the country to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war—PM Modi’s visit signals a renewed diplomatic push to deepen the Indo-Saudi strategic arc.
The timing could not be more critical. With the global order in flux and great power competition intensifying, particularly amid the US-China trade war, countries like India and Saudi Arabia are increasingly seen as stabilising forces capable of balancing competing alignments. For India, Washington’s recent tariff hike—reaching up to 245 per cent on key Chinese imports—opens up new economic opportunities, especially as Beijing appeals to New Delhi to boost bilateral trade. Simultaneously, India is encouraging the US to rechannel its production and investment flows towards India, carving out space as a viable alternative to China. Saudi Arabia, for its part, is playing a diplomatic balancing act of its own—maintaining deep ties with the US while also welcoming China’s role as a mediator in the Saudi-Iran détente.
Amid this complex interplay of geopolitical undercurrents, the revival of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) emerges as a critical focal point. India has kept IMEC’s momentum alive by signing an intergovernmental framework with the UAE, encouraging private players like the Adani Group to develop connectivity through the Haifa port, and launching the India-Mediterranean Initiative (IMI) with European partners. Saudi Arabia’s role, in that context, is indispensable in turning the vision of IMEC into reality, and Modi’s visit may serve as a platform for advancing a similar intergovernmental framework with Riyadh.
The visit is also expected to revisit the 2019 bilateral agreements—many of which have yet to be fully realised. For instance, the Crown Prince had unveiled a plan worth of US$100 billion to be invested in India which remains to be materialised. Additionally, given rising concerns about threats to critical infrastructure, especially those posed by non-state actors such as the Houthis in the Red Sea, both countries are likely to explore ways to embed IMEC within broader security cooperation frameworks. The existing National Security Advisor-level dialogue may be expanded to incorporate strategic infrastructure protection, specifically under the ambit of IMEC.
Furthermore, Modi’s outreach underscores India’s larger vision of Global South solidarity amid global disarray. As the Middle East prepares to host key diplomatic visitors, including the anticipated visit of President Trump in May to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s role in shaping the new world order will be under the spotlight. It is also an opportune time to invite Saudi Arabia – major regional power in the Middle East – to consider joining India’s MAHASAGAR initiative, aimed at creating a collaborative maritime arc across the Indo-Pacific and the Western Indian Ocean. His prior visits to Mauritius, Thailand and Sri Lanka and African outreach to join the initiative followed by Saudi visitation is symbolic of India’s intention to connect the Gulf to MAHASAGAR under Saudi Arabia’s leadership.
Moreover, India and Saudi Arabia, driven by converging national interests, growing energy interdependence, and mutual aspirations for regional stability, are increasingly embedded within overlapping regional security complexes. In the Middle East, both countries are deeply invested in the stability of the Gulf—India as a net energy importer and home to a large diaspora of around 9.5 million of which 2.5 million reside in Saudi Arabia alone, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a regional anchor navigating delicate fault lines, including the Iran question and the shifting US security footprint.
In the Indo-Pacific, where India’s strategic calculus is evolving amidst China’s assertiveness, Saudi Arabia’s growing eastward engagement following its “Look East” policy—through investments, port partnerships, and interest in multilateral groupings like BRICS+—places it firmly within India’s extended maritime neighbourhood. Globally, their positions as emerging powers seeking greater autonomy in a turbulent world order have aligned their visions for multipolarity, economic and peace corridors like IMEC, food and energy security, and countering non-state threats such as piracy and terrorism. In such a context, the two nations are not merely bilateral partners, but increasingly co-stakeholders in shaping the strategic architecture of a wider arc—from West Asia to the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Thus, their active participation in global initiatives, leadership roles within their respective regions, and calibrated multilateral engagements reflect how both India and Saudi Arabia are emerging as responsible middle powers.
In essence, this visit is about unfinished business and about converting intentions into actions. While many aspects of the bilateral relationship are important and ripe for expansion, Prime Minister Modi’s visit will fundamentally be about deepening the architecture around four strategic pillars, namely, accelerating developments on IMEC, addressing the evolving regional security complex, navigating global realignments with strategic clarity, and completing the circle on long-overdue bilateral initiatives. As both countries navigate shifting alliances and emerging opportunities, PM Modi’s Jeddah trip could mark a defining moment in reenergising the India-Saudi partnership for a world in transition.
Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
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