At the outset, let me admit I am Gen-Jurassic Park, born in 1953, the last batch of engineering to have used the slide rule—that too my father’s! I have progressed from slide rule to Fortran IV, mainframe Burroughs 6800 in 1980, mini-computers, Apple iPad and laptops, and mobile phones that have more computing power than the ENIAC (Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer).
In 1962, I saw the Indian Army come back bruised from the war with China (later watched Haqeeqat with tears in my eyes, and every time I hear Lata tai’s “Aye Mere Watan Ke Logon”, I have goosebumps); in 1965 read how the Indian Army reached the Ichhogil Canal; in 1971, India withstood the pre-emptive strikes of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) on Indian airbases and the not-so-subtle blackmail by the USA and the gunboat diplomacy and the threat of stopping the food under PL480, and the birth of Bangladesh; and the short but brutal Kargil War in 1999. Now, with the atrocious, sadistic Pahalgam attacks leading to Operation Sindoor.
In my lifetime, we have progressed from being a beggar nation, seeking affirmation for our way of life from the Western world, to one of the world’s largest economies—4th or 5th, let the economists wrangle over it.
As things stand today, we are a grain-surplus country, and the government has enough to supply free food to 60–80 million—again, let the economists squabble over the numbers. The IMF World Economic Outlook for 2025 pegs India’s GDP at $4.3 trillion or thereabouts and a GDP growth rate of 6.2–6.5%, capable of reaching the mythical $5 trillion economy by 2027.
I asked ChatGPT, “What may be the cost of an India–Pakistan war today?” and got the following answer:
The cost of a hypothetical India–Pakistan war today would be astronomically high, with impacts spanning economic, human, environmental, and geopolitical dimensions. While no estimate can be exact without the specific scenario, here’s a breakdown of likely costs in 2025 terms:
The estimated per-day cost of a full-fledged conventional India–Pakistan war in 2025 could range from $1 billion to $2.5 billion USD per day.
Human cost
- Military casualties: Tens of thousands on both sides, depending on scale and duration.
- Civilian casualties: Likely in the hundreds of thousands if urban areas are targeted.
- Displacement: Millions could be displaced due to fighting near borders or urban centres.
Economic cost
India:
- Direct war expenses: $50–$100+ billion (depending on air, naval, and ground force deployments).
- GDP impact: Estimated 2–5% drop in GDP growth rate for at least 1–2 years.
- Stock market crash: Market cap loss of $200–500 billion within days.
- Foreign investment pullout and credit downgrades.
Pakistan:
- Direct war expenses: $15–$30+ billion.
- GDP impact: Much more severe—likely recession or collapse of economic growth.
- High inflation and currency collapse.
Nuclear risk
If the conflict escalates to nuclear weapons:
- Casualties: Tens of millions dead.
- Environmental fallout: Radioactive contamination affecting agriculture, health, and regional climate (“nuclear winter”).
- Global economic shock: Losses in trillions of dollars globally; stock markets would plummet; oil prices could skyrocket.
Geopolitical & diplomatic fallout
- UN, US, China, Russia, and others would intervene diplomatically.
- Trade sanctions, arms embargoes, and international isolation could follow.
- South Asia would become a highly volatile global flashpoint.
Recovery time
- Economic: 5–10 years to return to pre-war growth.
- Social: Intergenerational trauma, militarisation, and instability could persist for decades.
Comparative Example:
- The Kargil War (1999) cost India about Rs 5,000 crore (~$1.2 billion at the time) for a short conflict. A full-scale war today would be 50–100 times costlier.
In short, a full-scale India–Pakistan war today would likely cost hundreds of billions of dollars and result in unprecedented humanitarian and geopolitical catastrophe, especially if nuclear weapons are involved. In all probability, Pakistan would be a radioactive wasteland and India’s north and west devastated (3rd World War by H. Hawksley, 2003). Our Cold Start doctrine would force Pakistan to use its tactical nukes first, leading the way for India’s Second Strike from the nuclear triad, long before any mediation. The United Nations, to paraphrase Bishen Bedi, is a ‘bunch of jokers’ at best.
To summarise, Pakistan is a failed state whose raison d’être is “denial of India”, run by an army which needs constant justification for its existence by negating the idea of a united, multi-cultural, multiethnic, vibrant democracy that is India. Need I repeat the jaded joke, “Every country has an army; the Pakistan Army has a country”?
We represent 1.4 billion of the 8.4 billion that inhabit planet Earth—fully one-sixth of humanity—and have loftier goals: to remain a vibrant democracy, become a developed country in the not-so-distant future. Pahalgam is an abomination perpetrated by sick, sadistic minds, but if the world can forget Auschwitz, Dachau, and Buchenwald and move on, can we too move on? Do we want another Hiroshima or Nagasaki when both India and Pakistan have around 170 nuclear warheads each, according to SIPRI?
War and decimation will only create more grieving widows, orphaned children and sad parents. War is a wonderful thing—it feeds the patriotism bandwagon and sustains the military-industrial complex that Eisenhower had warned against in his farewell speech, “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”
The existentialist angst of Pakistan can only be treated by its people when they rise against the army’s reign of power, almost unabated since its creation on August 14, 1947. We, the new India, now have loftier goals, an unprecedented geopolitical playbook backed by the sharpest minds, a growing economy, and an aspiring young population. Our diaspora heads the largest world bodies, academia and corporations. Let us look beyond this incident and focus on furthering our national goals rather than playing tit-for-tat with an impoverished neighbour, whose house is falling apart anyway!
Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
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