Indus Waters Treaty was always unfair to India. Its suspension will choke Pakistan TechTricks365

In the aftermath of the dastardly Pahalgam attack on vulnerable tourists who were enjoying a holiday in the serene and spectacularly beautiful environs of the Baisaran Valley, there is loud and strident clamour for revenge. The massacre of Hindu tourists vacationing in the ‘mini Switzerland’ after being singled out on their inability to recite an Islamic invocation is nothing short of a cowardly act, and it must be condemned in no uncertain terms.

The visual of a Hindu man lying dead, his trousers pooled at his feet, and his newly-wed wife sitting on the ground next to his dead body will haunt Indians forever. It is nothing less than a Hindu genocide and must be unequivocally and unambiguously designated as such. Some people are drawing parallels between this attack in the valley and the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel. 

A ploy to create a diversion during Vance’s visit, this attack has generated much ill will and animosity toward Kashmiri Muslims. However, baying for the blood of our brethren will only be counterproductive.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s exercise in restraint during his “Mann ki Baat’, requesting the people of India to have faith in his core team, led by Home Minister Amit Shah, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, and the Armed Forces of India—was a reminder that India is ready to counter any further belligerence from Pakistan. But escalating a provocative situation is not the path Hindus take to reach a flashpoint of no return. 

Instead, using a ‘water bomb’ as an initial response—symbolic for now—along with other diplomatically aggressive measures appears to be the most effective way to ensure that Pakistan is called out as a State sponsor of Terrorism. The prosperity and peace that is sprouting in the land of Rishi Kashyap, like gentle apple blossom buds, can’t be marred by a handful of terrorists determined to sabotage the tentative spring of progress. 

History of Kashmir

The history of Kashmir is intertwined with the history of the Hindus. Rishi Kashyap, who is stated to be the father of the devas and the demons, through his wives Aditi and Diti, drained the lake Satisaras, which was named after Lord Shiva’s first wife Sati.  A perusal of a bird’s eye view of Google Earth will also reveal a basin with a gap in the mountains at Varamullah (present day Baramulla) from where the water is said to have drained off. 

The Shaivaite sect of Hinduism has a deep-rooted connection with the valley, from the era of BCE, predating by centuries the birth of Christianity or Islam. Kashmir remains a sacred land for the Hindus, a Mecca of divine pilgrimage. As Minister of Culture, I surveyed hundreds of temples that dotted the land, predominant among them being the holy cave of Shri Amarnath, where Lord Shiva is said to have sat with his wife, who wanted to listen to the amarkatha from him.

There’s also the ancient Martand Sun Temple in Mattan, built in honour of Aditya, Son of Kashyap,  the Shiwala Mandir in Anantnag, and the Andarnag Temple among others. Lord Shiva released the moon from his jatas at Chandanwari, his snakes at Sheshnag, and he’s believed to have left his son Ganesh at Mahagunas Parvat. He’s known to have danced the tandav at Panjtarni and tethered his beloved Nandi cow at Bail Gaoin, which is present-day Pahalgam, the very site of the recent carnage. Anantnag, Srinagar, and Gulmarg are all names with Hindu history, no matter what narratives are spun by the Abdullahs, the Muftis, or the Geelanis. 

The undisputed fact is that Pakistan has attempted to change the demographic profile of this sacred land, starting with tribal infiltration in 1947, with the tacit support of the local terrorists, and post-1989, through indoctrination and merciless ethnic cleansing of the Hindus. Much of the original Kashmiri population shares the same lineage and heritage, with names like Dar, Ganjoo, Mir and Bhatt common on both sides of the religious divide. It is only after the infiltration that the pure Kashmiri blood was diluted, and the separatist movement was born. 

Also read: Lesson for Indian press after Pahalgam—don’t assume global solidarity, demand it

The Indus Waters Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed on 19 September 1960, brokered by the World Bank, with former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Pakistan’s President Field Marshal Ayub Khan. The rights and obligations of both countries concerning the waters of the six rivers, Indus, Chenab, Jhelum, Sutlej, Ravi, and Beas, were laid out in this treaty. Undivided Punjab was the land of the five rivers, which were bifurcated after Partition. Stop-gap arrangements to share water continued until the intervention of the World Bank and US attorney David Lilienthal in 1951, and this culminated in the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960. The waters of the Western Rivers  (Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus) were to be utilized by Pakistan, and those of the Eastern Rivers (Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi) were to go to India. 

It was unfair at the outset. India, as an upstream state, was made to concede over 80 per cent of the share of water to Pakistan to maintain peace in the region. This left India with less than 20 per cent of the water share in the basin, even though population-wise we were entitled to use more water, leading to heavy agricultural and economic losses. Further, India could only use western rivers for limited non-consumption purposes like hydropower, navigation, and even then, we have not adequately used our prerogative.

In terms of agricultural use, India was allowed only very restricted irrigation from the western rivers, capping how much land could be irrigated — even though these rivers flowed through the Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir. This hampered the economic and infrastructure development of the region, leading to further resentment and unrest. India barely used one-fifth of the basin flow and underutilised even that. 

Consequences of the suspension

The consequences of the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty are immense for Pakistan, as it relies on the water system for 90 per cent of its agricultural and daily needs. The Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir has no particular industry or economic development activities and remains a largely primitive land, with high dependency on agriculture. Any adjustment of water supply in this area creates havoc for the local people, as this weekend’s sudden rise in the Jhelum near Muzaffarabad led to a water emergency and fear of flooding in the Hattian Bala area.

This cessation of the Treaty would have clear long-term consequences on Pakistan’s hydropower projects in the region and would result in an energy crisis. It could also have serious ramifications for water requirements in the dry months and lead to flooding in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir during the monsoons; a dangerous and troublesome period in the Himalayas with rising flash floods and landslides in an era of climate change. This would effectively serve as a ‘water bomb’, drying up the tributaries of the six rivers that flow into Pakistan during the dry season and causing flooding and rain-led mayhem during the rains.

Using the ‘water bomb’ against Pakistan’s proxy war of terror in Pahalgam is a diplomatically correct move for India, which aims for Pakistan to “thirst for every drop of water and become a desert”. The Indus Waters Treaty was seen as a technical compact, but now it is viewed from the perspective of diplomacy, counter-terror policy, inter-state politics, ecological risk and public sentiment, and geopolitical strategy.

Suspension of the treaty will gradually bring results by choking Pakistan in long run. What has started as laissez-faire policy will end with engineering engagements in our region. Let engineers have the last laugh by constructing storage’s and carrying out diversions for achieving the desired outcome.

Meenakshi Lekhi is a BJP leader, lawyer and social activist. Her X handle is @M_Lekhi. Views are personal.

(Edited by Ratan Priya)