Chennai: As Tamil Nadu gears up for the 2026 assembly elections, smaller parties are intensifying efforts to consolidate their voter bases, and widen them further, through large conferences, hoping to improve their bargaining power when it comes to seat-sharing talks with senior allies.
While the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) celebrated its recognition as a state party with a huge conference and rally on 6 May in Chidambaram district, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) organised a mega conference at Thiruvidandhai near Mahabalipuram in Chengalpattu district on 11 May, flexing their voter mobilisation.
The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) is also planning a statewide tour for its base consolidation. The party recently elected Vijaya Prabhakaran, son of late leader Vijayakanth, as its youth wing leader.
Political analysts in the state say these gatherings are aimed at bolstering party structures and galvanising caste-based support so as to enhance their bargaining power during alliance talks.
Political analyst N Sathiya Moorthy said that through such conferences, smaller parties want to project themselves as strong prospective allies that deserve a respectable number of seats.
“Even to continue in the same alliance, but to get a better number of seats, such conferences are necessary,” he said, but cautioned that such gatherings always do not translate into votes. He gave the example of the DMDK rally when actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth launched his party before the 2006 assembly polls.
He said there was a huge gathering at the launch rally, but the party was able to secure just about 8.3 percent vote share and win only one from the 234 constituencies it contested. “So, crowds alone cannot decide the strength of the party.”
VCK’s deputy general secretary Vanniyarasu told ThePrint every party activity should not be seen through the prism of elections.
“The VCK has been consistently organising various conferences to keep our support base ideologically strong. Only a cadre base with strong ideology will stay intact irrespective of the electoral outcomes and we are just focusing on expanding our base,” Vanniyarasu said.
PMK’s spokesperson K Balu said their 11 May conference was not just aimed at the elections, but showcasing the strength of the Vanniyar community as well as the party.
He acknowledged, however, the conference would help the party be in a better position during the alliance talks for the 2026 elections. “It will also encourage party workers to stay connected with the leadership and begin work in their respective constituencies ahead of the 2026 assembly elections.”
While the VCK is an ally of the ruling DMK; the PMK, which was in the NDA during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, is yet to confirm its alliance for the 2026 state elections.
The DMDK, which was in alliance with the opposition AIADMK during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, is yet to confirm its partner for the 2026 state polls.
In the 2021 assembly election, the VCK contested six seats in the Secular Progressive Alliance led by the DMK and won four. The PMK contested 23 seats as a part of the AIADMK-led NDA, and won five.
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Vote transfer within the alliance
While smaller parties showcase their strength ahead of the polls, political analyst Raveendran Duraisamy said junior partners are largely dependent on their own support base, unlike the dravidian majors.
“The transfer of votes from the smaller parties to the dominant Dravidian parties happens so easily in the alliance. But, wherever the smaller parties contest on behalf of the alliance, they don’t get the support of the major dravidian party due to the lack of chemistry among the grassroots workers,” he said, adding such conferences would help in bolstering their individual strength in their respective regions.
Duraisamy also added it was more evident in the AIADMK-led alliance during the 2021 assembly election, where the senior partner was able to garner the support of the people belonging to the Vanniyar caste, a most backward community in the state, but the PMK did not get the votes of AIADMK supporters.
“Wherever the AIADMK contested in the 2021 assembly election, the Vanniyar vote base of the PMK backed the alliance candidate. However, except the two constituencies in Salem district, the PMK did not get the support of the AIADMK, which led to the defeat of the PMK candidates,”Duraisamy added.
In the 2021 assembly elections, the PMK won five assembly seats—two each in Salem and Dharmapuri districts, and one in Villupuram. While only Salem from the western region is dominated by the Gounder caste, an OBC community which largely backs the AIADMK, Dharmapuri and Villupuram district are dominated by the Vanniyar caste, a MBC community which largely backs the PMK.
Nevertheless, Sathiya Moorthy observed that the vote transfer and the winning probability of the smaller parties differ from election to election, dedicated by existing scenarios.
Talking about the 2026 polls, Moorthy said, “The dynamics change depending upon the alliance factor as well as the arrival of new entrants like actor-turned-politician Vijay.”
“When there were two-cornered fights, the chances of vote transfer from smaller parties to bigger parties and vice versa were high. But, when there is a three-cornered or four-cornered fight, the chances of vote transfer is difficult as it (votes) tends to split,” Moorthy said.
Talking specifically about Vijay’s entry in the fray, he said, “There are speculations that he would get anywhere between 4% to 18% of votes. But, whose vote will be eaten up is the question now. Speculative survey reports say he has the support of the women and youth. If true, whose loyal voters these women and youth were? Were they once loyal to the DMK and now going to shift sides? And what does Vijay have to (offer to) make them shift sides? These are the questions that confront us,” Moorthy said.
(Edited by Ajeet Tiwari)
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