According to OBC leaders of the BJP, a caste census will “open a new chapter of mandal politics and demands for more reservation and sub-categorisation among the OBCs”. There will be many challenges before the party to handle the frustration of both upper castes and OBCs, they said.
On the other hand, upper-caste leaders told ThePrint that the caste census decision was “not required at this moment, and would give the Congress an edge. The party got trapped in the Congress’s agenda”. The Centre’s decision to hold a caste census was a U-turn from its earlier stand on the idea.
“What was the need for this decision? This will fragment Hindutva consolidation and open up a pandora’s box of caste politics. When we are winning elections with Hindutva politics, why was there a need to open another front? If we are so sure of the gains from the caste census, why haven’t we released the Rohini Commission’s report?” an upper caste Rajya Sabha MP asked.
The Rohini Commission was constituted for examining sub-categorisation of OBCs and submitted its report to the President in July 2023.
The new fault-line in the BJP is already becoming evident.
Days after the Centre announced the caste census decision, Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, who comes from the OBC community and is one of the competitors of “Hindu Hriday Samrat” Yogi Adityanath, took a dig at the Chief Minister on social media.
He posted a one-line message on X: “Ek dusre ka dard mehsoos karenge toh majboot banenge aur safe rahenge (if we feel each other’s pain, we will become strong and remain safe).”
It was an apparent counter to Adityanath’s slogan “batengae toh katengae (if divided, we’ll get slashed)”, referring to the need for unity among Hindus after loss of Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh last year.
The message behind this post by Maurya, who had lost the chance of becoming CM, was clear: Yogi-brand Hindutva politics is not the only way to unite Hindus. Sharing power with the backward community is another way.
A BJP leader from one of the OBC groups said: “The 1990 mandal movement (following the identification of socially and educationally backward classes by the Mandal Commission) paved the way for leaders like Kalyan Singh, Uma Bharati, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Narendra Modi to rise in the party. The caste survey will now pave the way for more OBC-dominated politics, and smaller OBC communities will get more share in the party.”
A key consideration behind the BJP-led central government’s caste survey decision is likely to regain lost ground after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections among major backward communities, particularly OBCs and Dalits, in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Maharashtra.
The BJP has taken the plunge into caste data, being aware of upper-caste sensibilities and the risk of Hindutva fragmentation, but confident in its internal organisational capability to manage contradictions.
Shambhu Sharan Patel, BJP’s Rajya Sabha MP, lauded the Centre’s move.
“For social justice and empowerment, the government has taken the right decision. Once the data comes out, backward politics will change. Those who have enjoyed more power may get a shock, and smaller castes will get empowered and a larger share in power and education.”
Also Read: What’s behind Modi govt’s U-turn on caste census & how it targets Oppn ahead of crucial Bihar polls
Demands for equitable reservation
According to BJP’s OBC leaders, in several states, despite a significant OBC headcount, reservation is not proportionate and needs review. Breaching the court-set limit of 50 percent is justified, they told ThePrint.
The demand for reservation in private sector education, on the basis of caste census data, is also getting support. The opposition—particularly the Congress—too has been building pressure on the government for the same.
Chhattisgarh BJP OBC Morcha chief Rakesh Chandrakar told ThePrint that “we have to break the 50 percent barrier. Otherwise, how will we justify giving less reservation to backward communities whose headcount is more?”
“In Chhattisgarh, more than 40 percent people are OBCs and they back the BJP, but they are getting very little reservation. Dalits and tribals got their share of reservation. The census will give an X-ray of every caste’s numerical strength in society, and demand for more reservation for OBCs will start,” he added.
Rajasthan BJP OBC Morcha chief Champalal Gedar shared similar views.
The BJP had lost 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state last year, managing to win only 14 of the 25 seats it had won in 2019.
“In Rajasthan, there are more than 50 percent OBCs, but they are getting only 21 percent reservation. Several governments, including BJP’s, raised the issue of OBC quota, but the courts struck it down. Now, the caste census will give empirical data on the OBCs. Then, the demands of these communities will be addressed by the government,” he said.
“Jiski jitni abadi, utni uski bhagidari’ will come up. Even reservation in private education and jobs should be addressed, as it will ease the burden on the government sector.”
Uttar Pradesh was another state where the BJP suffered a major setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It was reduced from 62 seats to 33, while rival Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party gained at the BJP’s cost through a smart OBC-Dalit strategy and broke into the party’s Kurmi and Koeri vote-bank.
According to a post-poll survey by Lokniti-CSDS, the BJP-led NDA lost 19 percent of Koeri-Kurmi votes among the OBCs and 13 percent among other OBCs, while the opposition INDIA bloc gained 20 percent and 16 percent, respectively, in these groups. The NDA also lost 19 percent support among non-Jatav SCs.
The caste census data may likely be under process by the time the UP assembly elections are held two years later.
Speaking to ThePrint, BJP’s OBC leaders from Uttar Pradesh said the caste census decision will create demand for more equitable reservation for OBCs.
Narendra Kashyap, a minister in the Yogi government and OBC Morcha head, said: “According to the Mandal Commission, OBCs constitute 52 percent of the electorate in UP. Over the years, their population has grown, so a more equitable share of reservation will be required. This survey will show who needs more affirmative action. Redistribution will take place among OBCs.”
Redistribution of reservation
Among the states, Bihar was the first to conduct a caste survey of its residents and published its findings in 2023. The state government, led by Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) with BJP as partner, subsequently used the survey data to redistribute reservations.
The survey established that OBCs and EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes) together constitute 63 percent of Bihar’s population—OBCs at 27.12 percent and EBCs at 36.01 percent.
The state raised the reservation cap to 65 percent for these and other backward categories, aiming to provide representation more in line with their population share. The Patna High Court, however, stayed the decision in June 2024, deeming the increase unconstitutional as it exceeded the 50% ceiling on reservations set by the Supreme Court.
In the Lok Sabha polls in Bihar last year, the NDA lost 9 seats compared to 2019 when it had won 39 of the 40 seats. It further saw 12 percent vote loss among Koeri-Kurmi OBCs, 21 percent among other OBCs, 19 percent among Dusadh and Pasi communities, and 18 percent among other SCs, post-poll survey data by Lokniti-CSDS showed.
A Bihar BJP leader from the OBC community told ThePrint that the new headcount under the Centre’s caste survey will give authentic numbers to support the state government’s claim for 65 percent reservation.
Several BJP leaders also said that questions to assess educational and economic status should be included in the caste count survey to know who has become well-off and who remains backward, to ensure proper redistribution of reservations.
BJP’s Rajya Sabha MP from Uttar Pradesh, Baburam Nishad, told ThePrint: “The caste census will provide a blueprint of every caste’s numerical strength. Based on those numbers, pressure will build on the government for affirmative action. Those with larger populations and more backward status will demand more reservation, while there will also be calls to cut reservation for those who are now economically better off.”
“This could disrupt backward politics for many parties. As for the BJP, it has always promoted inclusive politics. During the 1990s, the BJP had led such efforts, and it is doing so again now. Economic and educational status should be part of the data to reflect the society’s real picture,” he added.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
Also Read: Chirag Paswan backs caste census, but not in favour of making data public. ‘Creates further division’