New Delhi: Ten months before the assembly elections in Assam, the state local body poll results have been a morale booster for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, and a disaster for the Congress.
The most potent blow to the Congress came in Jorhat, the constituency of Lok Sabha Deputy Leader of Opposition Gaurav Gogoi. In Jorhat, historically a stronghold of the Gogoi family, Congress could not win a single Zila Parishad seat as the BJP won all 16.
The BJP alliance registered a landslide victory, winning 300 of 397 Zila Parishad seats. While the BJP secured 272 seats, its ally, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), won 28. Together, they won around 76 percent of the Zila Panchayat seats. Meanwhile, Congress won only 72 Zila Parishad seats, securing around 18 percent of the seats.
On the other hand, of the 2,192 Anchalik Panchayat seats, the BJP won 1,265 and AGP won 171. The alliance won 1,436 seats, securing 66 percent of the Anchalik Panchayats. Congress won 21 percent of the seats.
Sarma’s ‘smart politics’: Winning minorities
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma attributed the victory to the BJP’s organisational strength, the synergy between the BJP and the AGP, and the support of all communities across several districts.
The BJP won 100 percent of the Zila Parishad seats in Dibrugarh, Dhemaji, Sonitpur, Tinsukia, Golaghat, Jorhat, Biswanath, Charaideo, Guwahati, Kaliabor, Majuli, and North Kamrup.
Addressing a press conference after his victory, Sarma said, “In the last panchayat election [in 2018], the BJP-AGP bagged 231 Zila Parishad seats, that is, 55 percent seats. In contrast, Congress won 35 percent of the seats in 2018. This time, its seats dropped to just 18 percent.”
“In Anchalik Panchayats, the BJP-AGP bagged around 52 percent seats in 2018, which has increased to 66% this election. The Congress won 35% of the seats last election, but the number has dropped to 21% this time,” Sarma added.
Sarma also said that the BJP has made inroads into minority-dominated areas. Earlier, the BJP’s success had been limited among the minority population.
The BJP won eight of 12 Zila Parishad seats in Bongaigaon, which has two to three seats, where minorities account for over 80% of the population.
In Goalpara, where the minority population is significant, the BJP alliance won 10 of 16 Zila Parishad seats. Four of these 10 seats went to Rabha Hasong Joutha Mancha, fighting the election under the BJP symbol.
In Barpeta’s Horipur, where minorities account for 90 percent of the population, BJP’s Haider Ali Hussain won. In Nalbari’s Barkhetri, where there is a 100% minority population, BJP’s Anwara Khatun won. In Dhubri’s Jaleswar, Meher Jamal Haque secured the seat for the BJP.
These victories highlight the BJP’s smart strategies and alliances to make inroads into minority-dominated areas of Assam.
A senior BJP leader told ThePrint on the condition of anonymity, “The BJP fielded senior leaders to campaign. Its micro-management strategy, including the chief minister himself going from district to district, helped. The CM fought the local election, as he would an assembly election. He played smart politics—people want development, and it is the CM who can deliver and take decisive actions.”
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Setback for Congress: ‘Nothing lasts in politics’
In 2024, Gaurav Gogoi snatched his Jorhat LS victory from sitting BJP MP Topon Gogoi despite Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and his entire Cabinet campaigning for their party candidate. Gaurav Gogoi’s success came due to the legacy of his father, Tarun Gogoi, who was influential in Jorhat, the last capital of the Ahom dynasty.
In this panchayat election, the BJP has made a resounding comeback after losing the plot in the 2018 Lok Sabha election. Congress could not win any seat in Jorhat and was completely defeated in the cultural heartland of Assam, Sivasagar. Another Ahom-dominated district, Sivasagar, saw 11 of 12 seats go to the BJP and the remaining to AGP. Congress was also wiped out in Majuli and Charaideo, where the BJP alliance showed its domination.
This Congress rout in the districts of the Ahom community, along with rejection by other Hindus in the state, has created a challenge for the party ahead of the 2026 assembly poll.
Similarly, the BJP surged ahead of Congress in Dhubri, considered a hub of the migrant Muslim population. Additionally, in Nagaon, despite the Congress’s 2024 LS victory, the BJP took the lead.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Congress MLA Rakibul Hussain won Dhubri by a 10 lakh-vote margin, defeating the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief Badruddin Ajmal. A blow to AIUDF, the results were construed as the return of the minority population to the Congress fold. But the tide has turned.
Accepting the panchayat election results, Gaurav Gogoi said, “Nothing is permanent in politics. We had won several seats in the Lok Sabha election last year. But, circumstances have changed for us within a year. They may change again next year. We are assessing the situation.”
Gogoi admitted that the BJP worked harder in Jorhat and Upper Assam after its losses from these areas during the Lok Sabha election.
BJP’s former MP who lost against him, Topon Gogoi, told ThePrint, “The main reason for Congress’s loss was that senior party leader Gaurav Gogoi does not visit his constituency, Jorhat. He has lost contact with the people, while the BJP made a course correction after its LS loss, made a huge push for development works, worked on the developmental front for all sections of society, and I continued to meet people and helped the party.”
Assam BJP general secretary Pallab Lochan Das told ThePrint, “Knowing Ahom sentiments, the BJP made Pabitra Margherita a Union minister to broaden his base in the Gaurav Gogoi stronghold. The CM announced another capital in Dibrugarh to consolidate Upper Assam votes. Lastly, accusing Gaurav Gogoi of Pakistan links helped build a narrative against him, and in turn, attracted the Ahom votebank towards the BJP.”
Decline of AIUDF: ‘Congress divided Muslim votes’
In the 2024 LS election, the defeat of AIUDF founder Badruddin Ajmal in Dhubri, where the party gained only a bit of traction, the decline of AIUDF seemed written in stone. The panchayat poll shows that the decline has not stopped.
AIUDF won nine Zila Parishad seats—four in Dhubri, where Ajmal had, previously, won three LS elections, two in Barpeta, and two in Goalpara—all constituencies with a significant Muslim population.
AIUDF spokesperson Jafar Ali told ThePrint, “Our performance was not expected. However, Congress has divided the Muslim votes. Its defeat comes as it lost the seats in 13 Hindu-dominated districts. It only got some traction in the Muslim constituencies.”
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
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