Trump’s trade wars have ignited fear of war in SouthEast Asia. Russia’s invasion of a smaller neighbour—Ukraine—has shown that even in these modern times, unbridled aggression can go unpunished.
Mainland China has for longed wanted to take recalcitrant Taiwan, but it has been stopped from doing so by its umbilical cord being tied to the prosperity of the US. Now that Trump has cut this umbilical cord, there is no disincentive for China to let Taiwan be.
Joe Biden before Trump had made it clear that he would put American boots on the ground to save Taiwan from China. Trump has been laissez-faire in this regard. It’s unclear if he will come to Taiwan’s aid in case of an invasion from the mainland. He’ll probably make polite noise and let matters be.
Joe Biden was also committed to the Quad—the quasi-military alliance of the US, India, Japan and Australia. In his first term, Trump became fast friends with the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. This friendship sent tremors through Japan, and also through South Korea. The Koreans hate what the Japanese did to them in World War II. South Korea still wants to be friends with the North Koreans, but they dislike communism.
The Japanese, then and there, decided that they would secure themselves from an attack by North Korea, in spite of having a security treaty with the US. Trump waffled in his commitment to this treaty. It was believed that Japan became just a turnkey away from developing a nuclear bomb to protect itself.
The Biden years saw a lot of focus on the Indo-Pacific, with a number of joint military exercises by its four partners. China found this alliance threatening and said so. Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia, which is good friends with China, said that the Quad was unnecessary, even dangerous. He felt that ASEAN was enough to take care of the security needs of the Indo-Pacific.
India too was happy with the focus on the Indo-Pacific, of which it was the centerpiece. India was happy to get all the help it could to counter China. When the help was forthcoming from the mightiest army in the world, the American, there was nothing like it. India got to learn military best practices from the US, Japan and Australia, all advanced nations militarily, as well as economically. Membership of the Quad gave India heft beyond its own.
Trump is ambivalent towards the Quad, and the Indo-Pacific in general. He is emotionally close to the UK. White nationalist that he is, he might also be interested in protecting Australia. But he has little time for colored nations like Japan, India and Taiwan.
China knows this. It knows that deal-making on tariffs with the US will be hard and brutal, perhaps well nigh impossible. Trump has ramped up the fear psychosis of the yellow devil that he perceives China to be amongst his MAGA base. His base hates China and blames it for many of the economic ills afflicting America and Americans.
But Trump is canny. He has boxed China into a corner, but he doesn’t want to go to war with it, whether over Taiwan, tariffs or anything else. He knows that the US will get a bloody nose in any conflict with China. A war with China, if it happens, will happen in China’s geographical zone, immediately placing it at an advantage against a faraway adversary like the US.
Trump also knows that the Quad may not be enough to take on China. Today China has more warships than the US. But despite all Trump’s planning, war against China might come to him, willy-nilly, even if he doesn’t go towards it.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will send tremors throughout Asia. China and Japan are mortal enemies. Japan will prepare for war against China. India and China are not the best of friends either. India too will ramp up its war machine. Pakistan, not to be left alone, will see an opportunity in engaging in a two-front war alongside China against India. Asia could go up in flames.
Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author’s own.
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