Intense convection (in green) bubbled off Karnataka-Goa coast on west coast as well as Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Bay of Bengal on Tuesday morning.
| Photo Credit:
www.meteologix.com/in
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of extremely heavy rainfall in isolated places of Karnataka for the next two days as the monsoon closes in. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over Kerala and Mahe and Karnataka for six days; over Rayalaseema for two days; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Tuesday.
IMD’s outlook for the next seven days predicts fairly widespread to widespread/moderate rainfall, with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds likely over Kerala and Mahe, Lakshadweep, and Karnataka. Scattered to fairly widespread with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds is expected across Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema and Telangana.
Twin monsoon engines
The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) expects the monsoon to hit Kerala this week, would likely ride ‘twin engines’ in the form of building storms over both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
The IMD is already watchful of a low-pressure area popping up over Karnataka-Goa coast, which may intensify to become a depression. The ECMWF is now predicting a counterpart system to form over the Bay, an ideal situation in which the monsoon has been seen in the past to thrive and make quick onward progression during the onstage and beyond.
Projected storm track
The European forecaster appears to concur with IMD’s view that the storm building over the Arabian Sea may propel away from south Gujarat coast towards south Pakistan-Oman coast. However, it may likely be sent back on its track towards the north Arabian Sea, off the south Gujarat. Concurrently, Bay system could also likely become a depression and eye the Odisha-West Bengal coast.
Landfall over Odisha-West Bengal may occur almost simultaneously as backtracking Arabian Sea system finds moorings off the Gujarat coast, and stalls ahead of a likely landfall by May 31. The upshot is that monsoon may fire away on four cylinders along the west coast as well as the east coast, powered as it will be by ‘twin engines’ whirring away over both peninsular seas.
Intense convection
IMD’s satellite imagery animation during a six-hour ending 7 am on Tuesday showed intense convection over west coast from Kerala, Coastal Karnataka to Konkan and Goa as well as on east coast and adjoining interior over Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Convection is a process in which where warm and moist air rises, cools, and condenses to form clouds and precipitation.
Rainfall regime along the east coast is overseen by an upper air cyclonic circulation over west-central Bay and adjoining south Coastal Andhra Pradesh. A helpful trough runs from south-east Bay to North Interior Karnataka cutting through above cyclonic circulation over west-central Bay, south Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Rayalaseema, directing oodles of moisture inland.
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Published on May 20, 2025
