With stock levels from the previous season still affecting the trade due to limited sales during Ramadan, exporters are keenly watching the market for a price correction that can trigger bulk buying
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JOMON PAMPAVALLEY
Copious summer showers in the cardamom-growing regions in Kerala have rekindled farmers’ hopes of getting a good harvest in the upcoming season, expected to start by July.
The growing tracts in Idukki already received three-four good showers, which, though dragged the cardamom prices to ₹2,500 per kg, have reduced the chances of a drought this season.
The traders are expecting increased earnings as the emerging situation along with anticipated export enquiries for the ensuing Bakrid from gulf nations could boost the prospects for the spice.
With the conclusion of the festival season, the upcountry demand was subdued. Though the climatic condition has turned conducive for cardamom, they are cautiously optimistic as they faced a similar situation last year when abundant rains during March and April was followed by a drought in the subsequent months damaging the crop in a big way.
Promising start
SKM Dhanavanthan, an exporter in Bodinayakanur, said the 2025 cardamom season is off to a promising start with crop arrivals looking better than expected due to favourable weather conditions. Unlike last year’s supply constraints and soaring prices, this season is expected to see healthy availability across major growing regions.
With stock levels from the previous season still affecting the trade due to limited sales during Ramadan, exporters are keenly watching the market for a price correction that can trigger bulk buying. The key turning point for this season will likely be Bakrid, which traditionally sees a spike in demand across export and domestic markets, he said.
As Bakrid approaches, the industry can expect stronger momentum, provided pricing is kept within reasonable limits. Buyers are ready, markets are active, and with good crop availability, a balanced price strategy can lead to excellent sales volumes during the festive window.
Speculative hoarding
However, he said the artificial price inflation or speculative hoarding may only hurt real trade, as buyers are highly price-sensitive at this point. A steady, transparent market with fair pricing is the key to unlocking Bakrid-driven demand and setting the tone for a successful season ahead.
Krishnan Thampi, Head (Research), Hedge Group of Companies, said the short-term outlook over the next three–six months appears positive, influenced by climatic challenges, reduced yields, and export demand. Given the reduced domestic supply and the global supply constraints, especially from Guatemala, export demand is anticipated to remain strong. This sustained demand, coupled with limited supply, is likely to keep prices elevated in the short term. However, if the summer rains significantly improve crop conditions, there could be a gradual stabilisation or slight decrease in prices as the new harvest enters the market.
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Published on April 16, 2025
