The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on April 14 trimmed its 2025 forecast for global oil demand growth, citing slower first-quarter trends and fresh US trade tariffs. The group also scaled back its global economic growth projections for this year and next, highlighting rising uncertainty in the wake of geopolitical and trade-related shifts.
OPEC’s latest monthly report estimates world oil demand will increase by 1.30 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 — 150,000 bpd less than last month’s projection. The downward revision stems from weaker-than-expected data in early 2024 and new US tariffs.
For 2025, oil demand growth in OECD countries is forecast at just 0.04 million bpd, down from 0.1 million. Demand in non-OECD countries is now expected to rise by 90,000 bpd, significantly below the 1.3 million bpd previously estimated.
Looking ahead to 2026, global demand is projected to grow by 1.3 million bpd, down slightly from 1.4 million bpd in last month’s forecast. OPEC expects OECD countries to add 0.08 million bpd and non-OECD nations to contribute 1.2 million bpd — both revisions from earlier figures.
OPEC also downgraded its global economic growth outlook. It now expects the world economy to grow 3% in 2025, down from its earlier forecast of 3.1%. For 2026, the group predicts 3.1% growth, a notch lower than last month’s 3.2%.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” OPEC noted.
OPEC forecasts that the US economy will expand by 2.1% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, anticipating a slowdown in the first half of 2025 before stabilising as trade agreements materialise. Growth in the Eurozone has been revised down to 0.8% for 2025, with 2026 holding steady at 1.1%. Meanwhile, China’s economy is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026. According to the report, China “has means to limit the impact (of US tariffs), such as domestic stimulus measures or further diversifying its export markets.”
