Chandigarh: The Aam Aadmi Party’s crushing defeat in the Delhi assembly election is likely to have a cascade effect in Punjab, the only state where the beleaguered party is now in power in India.
From decisions that will determine the fate of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann to increased interference of the AAP top rung, political analysts predict Punjab to turn into a hotbed of “political engineering” in the coming days.
Institute of Development and Communication (IDC) Director Pramod Kumar told ThePrint that as far as Punjab was concerned, it will be in election-mode henceforth.
“The Delhi results are a challenge for the ruling AAP and an opportunity for the opposition parties. The AAP will have to change its strategy in Punjab if it wants to be in the race for power in the 2027 assembly polls. The Delhi model of governance has obviously failed to get them votes. In Punjab, they had promised to bring in the ‘Delhi model of governance’. If the AAP continues the model in Punjab, it will likely meet the same fate as in Delhi today,” said Kumar.
“For the opposition parties, the Delhi result is an opportunity. The state will likely undergo different ‘political engineering’ experiments, including replication of the politics in Maharashtra. Even otherwise, the defeat of the AAP will give a major fillip to all the opposition parties in the state,” added Kumar.
He pointed out that the period of political uncertainty would fan radical elements, and the polarisation of votes was likely. “However, not necessarily will this polarisation benefit the BJP. The Punjabi Hindu has more faith in a moderate Akali Dal to protect his interest than the BJP,” said Kumar.
Ashutosh Kumar, professor in the political science department, Panjab University, Chandigarh, told ThePrint that the position of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann is expected to gain strength, following the Delhi results, which saw the party high command getting electorally decimated.
“Their moral authority to exert dominance in Punjab has ended. Mann will be able to stand up to them now, with his position in the party elevated,” said the professor.
He added that there will be pressure on Mann to perform better and project Punjab as the party’s showcase state. “It is a definite wake-up call for the party in Punjab,” said the professor, adding that there is also a possibility of some defections from AAP in the future.
Other analysts, however, differed.
Harjeshwar Singh, an assistant professor in the history department at SGGS College, Chandigarh, told ThePrint that increased interference from the Delhi AAP leadership is expected following their wind-up in Delhi.
“I cannot say that Mann will be shifted out. However, Delhi’s leadership will intensify its focus on the governance of Punjab. Mann’s problems are bound to multiply,” he said.
“The options before Mann are not many. He does not have the numbers to break free from the party. He does not have a single MLA with him in that sense. Also, he has proved to be a failure as a CM. That is his biggest disqualification in starting a protest against the party high command,” added Singh.
“Also, the possibility that the party will learn a lesson from Delhi and turn its attention to developing Punjab as a showcase state for other elections is dim. The AAP government has failed to perform in Punjab abysmally. What will they achieve in the two years left? Moreover, the state has no funds. How much can they do in a cash-starved state?” asked Singh.
The AAP registered a phenomenal victory in the state in the 2022 assembly elections, winning 92 of the 117 seats.
“Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s seat, which has been shaky for the past few months, is now in “real danger” of being taken from him. There is a distinct possibility of a change at the top in Punjab. Who will replace him, however, is a guess. Kejriwal might not take over directly as CM. However, his complete control of the Punjab government is now imminent,” said Kanwalpreet Kaur, professor in the political science department at DAV College, Chandigarh.
“The AAP will now be run from Punjab. The resources of the state will be overburdened and misused. Funds for the party, its advertising budget, and even the expenses of senior leaders will have to be borne by the state openly or discreetly. I expect further politicisation of the police,” she added.
(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)
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