The fact that Muslims did not take the AAP’s approach kindly was evident in the results of the 2022 Delhi municipal polls, in which the Congress won five wards in neighbourhoods that were hit by the riots. It also won two more wards in the Muslim-majority areas of Okhla and Zakir Nagar in southeast Delhi, reinforcing the perception that the community felt alienated by the AAP.
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With less than two weeks left for the assembly polls, one question dominates: Will Muslims, wary of a potential BJP victory, place their trust in the AAP? Or, will the Congress regain lost ground among the community due to its disillusionment with the AAP?
“Look, there are Congress supporters in every household around here. But when it comes to voting, the AAP will be the community’s first choice. The Congress may be in our hearts, but when it comes to the mind, we’ll vote for AAP,” says Aftab, 65, who runs a mobile phone shop in Seelampur’s bustling Matke Wali Gali.
That sentiment is echoed not just in Seelampur, but also in the neighboring Muslim-majority constituencies of Mustafabad and Babarpur. In more distant areas, such as southeast Delhi’s Okhla, or in Matia Mahal and Ballimaran in Old Delhi, most Muslims still place the AAP ahead in the race. That said, Congress and Muslim-led parties like All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) are still very much part of the conversation.
Eager to make a comeback in the city it once dominated, the Congress is banking on the support of Muslims, who account for 12.86 percent of Delhi’s population, according to the 2011 Census. The districts with the largest concentration of Muslims are Central (33.36 percent) and Northeast (29.34 percent).
In 2013, of the eight seats that the Congress managed to win, four were Muslim-dominated ones. However, in 2015 and 2020, the party drew a blank, as the AAP swept the polls, winning big in all Muslim-majority constituencies.
“It can now be argued that the Congress was able to hold on to its Muslim support in 2013 not due to any great affection for it among the community, but because Muslims were unsure whether the AAP was in a position to defeat the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party). Once they saw the winning capability of the AAP, they shifted in considerable numbers…,” a Lokniti-CSDS study had observed after the 2015 assembly polls.
In their bid to win back the Muslim support, the Congress leaders, while addressing rallies, have been repeatedly reminding voters that Kejriwal and other AAP leaders, including its MLAs, stayed away when the riots swept the northeast Delhi five years ago.
Consider the remarks made by Congress Rajya Sabha MP Imran Pratapgarhi at a poll rally on Wednesday: “Who stood with you when Delhi was burning? In Sambhal? In Hathras? Who stood with you in Kashmir? In Manipur? If Rahul Gandhi has always stood by you, and you vote for some impersonator, it will be an injustice to your own conscience,” he said.
But for a tactical mistake, say residents, the Congress could have benefited from this sentiment. However, by fielding Abdul Rehman—who represented Seelampur as an AAP MLA from 2020 until his switch to Congress in December 2024—the party has squandered the opportunity to capitalise on it, they say.
On top of that, the AAP managed to secure the support of Seelampur’s five-time MLA Chaudhary Mateen Ahmed, who served as an MLA from 1993 to 2014. His son Chaudhary Zubair Ahmed has been fielded by the AAP as its candidate in the constituency. Zubair’s wife Shagufta was among the nine Congress councillors who won in the 2022 civic polls.
“Abdul Rehman represented the AAP, which hesitated to intervene during the riots or participate in the protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) either in northeast Delhi or Shaheen Bagh in Okhla. Rehman himself was not available when the community needed him the most. Now, he conveniently blames the AAP for abandoning the Muslims. On the other hand, the family of Mateen Ahmed was available for us,” says Mujeeb, a trader in Seelampur’s wholesale garments market.
Mujeeb says the Congress should have instead fielded Mohammad Ishraq Khan, who was the AAP’s Seelampur MLA from 2015 to 2020. Ishraq, who is not formally educated, had switched over to the Congress in November 2024, and continues to have goodwill in the area. But, the Congress has fielded him from the neighbouring Babarpur constituency, represented by Delhi Cabinet Minister and senior AAP leader Gopal Rai since 2015.
Rai is once again contesting from the seat, which the BJP has won four times in the past, the most recent being in 2013, when a split in anti-BJP votes between the AAP and the Congress helped the BJP, a trend seen in 2008 as well when the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was a factor.
Shyam Singh Tomar, the BJP’s mandal vice-president in the area, is expecting a similar outcome this time, along with a consolidation of Hindu votes in the party’s favor. He believes many Hindus who backed the AAP in 2015 and 2020 have no reason to do so this time, as “we (BJP) have promised not just to maintain the existing freebies, but to offer more”.
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Divide yet to be bridged
Across the North East district, there are signs that the scars of the riots have healed to a considerable degree. In the area’s markets, for instance, it’s not hard to find Muslim employees working in shops owned by Hindus. Yet, there remains a gulf that no party has attempted to bridge—and worse still, some have tried to exploit.
In Babarpur, attempts are being made to use ongoing renovation work at a graveyard against the ruling AAP. “The roads are broken, the drainage system is clogged. What was the pressing need to plaster the boundary walls of the graveyard with waterproof tiles, or to paint them now? This is the reality of the AAP,” says a BJP functionary, adding that the party is making “effective use” of social media and WhatsApp to “expose such tactics”.
The BJP is hoping to capitalise on similar factors in Mustafabad, which also lies in the North East district. Much like Babarpur, where the BJP won in 2013 due to a split in the anti-BJP vote between Congress and AAP, and in 2008, between Congress and BSP, the BJP also secured a win in Mustafabad in 2015, as both Congress and AAP divided the anti-BJP votes.
Sunil Kumar, who runs a roadside stall selling socks and undergarments, claims that “outsiders” have been infiltrating the area because, under the AAP government, workers in factories and tenants are no longer required to undergo verification “like in the past”. His fear echoes the BJP’s claim that the AAP has facilitated the settlement of ‘Rohingya Muslims’ for electoral gains and suggests that the narrative has found some traction on the ground.
Be that as it may, what seems to be working to the AAP’s advantage in the Muslim-dominated seats is the widespread support Kejriwal enjoys from the women of the community. “Aadhi aabadi ka support toh AAP ko mil hi rahi hai yaha (the AAP is getting overwhelming support from women),” says Shakeela, who stays near Jaffrabad Metro Station.
In Okhla, Noorul Hasan, a retired teacher, says women in nearly every household have signed up for the AAP’s poll guarantee of Rs 2,100 in monthly financial assistance. “Nearly 50,000 women voters in Okhla have already registered for the scheme, and the registration drive was carried out using voter ID cards. It is evident that the AAP is enjoying a lead of nearly 50,000 votes even before the first vote is cast,” he said.
Adding to the Congress’s woes, its star campaigner and most popular face Rahul Gandhi has so far addressed just one election rally in Delhi. Over the last three days, he skipped two pre-scheduled rallies, both is Muslim pockets, due to ill health, leaving party workers and supporters demoralised.
Tanvir Aeijaz, associate professor at Delhi University’s Ramjas College, told ThePrint that the Muslims are likely to support the AAP, despite growing disenchantment with the party, as the community still sees Kejriwal’s party as more capable of defeating the BJP.
“Muslims, in most places, vote strategically to defeat the BJP, and Delhi is unlikely to be any different. Yes, there is disillusionment with the AAP over its stance during the riots and the anti-CAA protests. Additionally, several Muslim civil rights groups in the area are canvassing for the Congress, which has left many Muslims in a state of confusion. But gradually, they are likely to consolidate behind the AAP,” Aeijaz said.
“The Congress campaign, which is entirely anti-Kejriwal, is not helping its case. Also, if Rahul Gandhi is unwell, why isn’t Mallikarjun Kharge or Priyanka Gandhi Vadra campaigning? The Congress campaign leaves a lot to be desired,” he added.
Meanwhile, the Congress is not the only party sensing an opportunity to win Muslim support due to the AAP’s deliberate efforts to avoid being labeled as pro-minority—either by tiptoeing around issues of minority rights or by emphasising its pro-Hindu credentials, such as announcing that Hindu priests and Sikh granthis would receive a monthly allowance of Rs 18,000 if the party returned to power in Delhi.
Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has, for instance, fielded two candidates—Tahir Hussain from Mustafabad and Shifa-ur-Rehman from Okhla. Both Hussain, a former AAP councillor, and Rehman, the former president of the Jamia Millia Islamia alumni association, are in jail in connection with the February 2020 riots.
The Congress had also considered fielding another Delhi riots accused—lawyer and former party municipal councillor Ishrat Jahan—from Okhla. However, it ultimately chose current local councillor Ariba Khan, the daughter of former Congress MLA Asif Mohammad Khan, to contest.
While these candidates find mention in the poll chatter, and are spoken with respect due to their “struggle for the rights of the community”, voters argue that “practical considerations”, rather than moral or ideological, will inform their choices when they press the Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) button on 5 February.
“Will the Congress or the AIMIM form the government? No. Our best bet is the AAP to keep the BJP at bay. In the Lok Sabha polls, we backed the Congress. Issbar jhaadu ko milegi (This time it will be the AAP),” says Iqbal, who runs a cigarette shop near the Jaffrabad metro station.
The significance of a potential Muslim consolidation behind the AAP in a tightly fought election, where the margin between the two parties could be razor-thin, is not lost on the BJP. This prompted one senior BJP leader to quip, “Wo kehte hai dil mai Congress, dimaag mai AAP. Asal mai dil mai hai Congress, dimaag mai bhajpa (They (Muslims) say ‘Congress is in the heart, AAP in the mind.’ In reality, it’s BJP in their mind).”
(Edited by Tony Rai)
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